Handicapping Your MBA Odds - Poets&Quants

Poets&Quants Founder John A. Byrne & HBSGuru.com Founder Sandy Kreisberg

She’s a 28-year-old professional who has spent the past two years in supply chain management for a major semiconductor company, traveling to factories and suppliers throughout Asia. She now manages two high impact product categories with annual revenues of about $450 million. And she wants an MBA degree to move into a strategic leadership role in the high tech space.

He’s a 30-year-old African-American who works as a senior trader at a top-tier proprietary trading firm in Chicago. With a 740 GMAT and a 3.3 grade point average in computer science and finance from a prestige public university, he’s hoping to use an MBA to transition into a private equity job in emerging markets, ultimately with a goal of starting his own PE firm.

A 2+2 candidate at Harvard Business School, this 23-year-old African male will be graduating from a low-tier school in Europe where he founded two startups in his first year at university. One company failed but the other was sold to a family friend, and he is now working on another startup before starting a master’s program in public policy at a Top 20 European university. With his MBA, he hopes to use his MBA knowledge and connections to create a company in the healthcare/pharmaceuticals sector in Africa.

Sandy Kreisberg, founder of HBSGuru.com

What they all share in common is the desire to gain an MBA experience at one of the very best business schools in the world. Do they have the raw stats and experience to get in? Or will they get dinged by their dream schools?

Sandy is back again to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics, work backgrounds and career goals with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature to be published shortly. (Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

And if you just have a short question, he is happy to answer that, too. So just post it in the comment section below.

Ms. Chain Supply Management

• 161V/161Q GRE
• 3.8 GPA
• Undergraduate degree from Arizona State University with a triple major in supply chain management, business law and English literature
• Work experience includes two years in supply chain management in the energy industry with a major oil and gas company based in Houston; started as a buyer, moved into category management and then market intelligence/business analytics; and two years currently in supply chain management at a major semiconductor maker, traveling to factories and suppliers throughout Asia; originally managed a $100 million category and after a promotion now manages n additional category worth a total of $450 million
• Extracurricular involvement as board member on alumni council for undergraduate business school; mentor to students; member of all-female community service organization; also did two study abroad programs as undergraduate in China and Italy/Greece
• Goal: To stay in the high tech space, hoping to move into a strategic leadership role within a major tech company
• 28-year-old white female

Odds of Success:

INSEAD: 40% to 50%
Harvard: 25% to 30%
Stanford: 25%
Wharton: 25% to 30%
Dartmouth: 30% to 40%
Northwestern: 30% to 40%

Sandy’s Analysis: Your GRE translates to a 660 GMAT so my first piece of advice is retake the test.

You didn’t provide a title so I have a little trouble figuring out exactly what you do for your major semiconductor manufctuer.

So the quick analysis is that the fact you are a female is good. Your 3.8 GPA from Arizona State is good. Your GRE score is problematic. The fact you are a woman working in a tech environment is a positive. It sounds like you come in on a regular basis and make sure everyone has their ties pulled up and their shoes tied. You’ve got a lot of hard core, real business experience. And you’ve worked and gotten promoted at two major companies: a major oil and gas company and a major tech company.

The question is does all this add up to an admit at Harvard or Stanford?

For Stanford, what you need is an X factor. Either you come from an adversity background or you are helping adversity victims. Another X factor is what I will call X squared. You got a 4.0 from Princeton and then you worked for Goldman Sachs and Blackstone. It’s resume that weights a lot. You don’t have that so I don’t think you are getting into Stanford.

I think Harvard is going to be a reach because of the GRE. Let’s say you had a 740 GMAT. I think you would be a strong Harvard applicant. That could make a big difference because you are the real thing. You are not some smart woman who majored in Chiense and then worked for McKinsey for two years. You’ve worked for real businesses in real jobs. No dis on McKinsey here; that’s just the truth.

And if you are a first generation college student, your degree from Arizona State could work to your advantage.

My tough love for you: Study for those standardized tests, whichever one you can do best on. Take it three or four times if you have to. There is nothing more important that you can do than to raise your standrdized test score.

If you get near the Harvard average on either the GMAT or the GRE, you have a good shot of getting in. In fact, I’d add ten percentage points on all your odds if you were able to even get your equivalent GMAT score up by 40 points to just a 700.

Wharton is going to like the same thing everyone else likes. But Wharton pays more attention to GMAT and GRE scores.

Mr. MBB

• 760 GMAT
• 3.65 GPA
• Undergraduate degree from a top five U.S. university in economics
• Work experience includes two years in consulting at MBB in a major U.S. office (think NYC, Chicago or San Francisco) and two years at a large private equity firm (one step below KKR, Blackstone or Carlyle)
• Extracurricular involvement co-leading recruiting strategy for region while at an MBB, tutoring students from refugee backgrounds, involved with fundraising for supporting education in inner-city programs
• Short-Term Goal: Return to private equity
• Long-Term Goal: Either continue in PE or become leader in a large financial services firm
• “Already admitted to a deferred admissions program at a M7, but hoping to target one of the three schools listed above (side note: is it worthwhile listing the admission on a resume when applying?”
• 26-year-old Indian-American male

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 30% to 40%
Stanford: 20% to 30%
Wharton: 40%+

Sandy’s Analysis: Your profile is real solid but you are in a super hard bucket of 3.6/760 male PE guys. So outcomes for you at HSW often depend on execution and a bit of luck, and not blowing the admissions interview.

I would not mention deferred admission to any of the schools you want to attend. There simply is no upside for you, and they might think (and it might be TRUE) that you promised that school you would attend, if admitted early.

Current EC’s are better than most PE guys. If they are ‘real’ and substantive versus
you once helped a kid do his homework, they are really worth highlighting

Alas, a good deal of the your differentiation is based on your grades, GMAT and beyond that

1. Where you work [and this is super important because if your PE employer is a feeder firm, and is international, and getting hired there is ultra selective, you are a very good shape). All PE firms are not equal.

2. Where you went to college. This also comes back to how selective the school is.

3. I also disagree that many many white/Indian male PE applicants will have similar stats.

4. For the sake of argument, let’s assume two guys do have similar stats and work backgrounds. Then, recommendations become important, since in my experience, there is a whole class of rec writers who mean well, but do not deliver because they do not know standard rec hyperbole or just are not specific enough. There is a skill to writing an impactful rec. It is not rocket science, but make sure your writers are down with the program.

Essays can make a difference, but usually on the down side if you come off as braggy, annoying, unaware, or state goals that are odd or otherwise out of no place.

5. By far the biggest deal breaker for PE guys at HBS is blowing the interview.
Please search Poets&Quants for my super duper article How Not To Blow Your HBS Interview.

Mr. 2+2

• 720 GMAT (expected based on mock tests)
• 3.7 GPA
• Undergraduate degree from a low-tier European university (graduation delayed due to depression, thoroughly explained in essay and supported by recommenders)
• Admitted to a master’s program in public policy from a top 20 university in Europe
• Work experience includes founding two startups during his first year at university, one sold to a family friend and the other failed; an internship in finance in investment management; now working on another startup
• Extracurriculars include mentoring young people who are depressed; member of the LGBT community; fundraiser for an association in an African country
• Short-term Goal: To do a startup in the healthcare/pharmaceuticals in Africa
• Long-term Goal: To create startup incubators in Africa
• 23-year-old African male

Odds of Success:

2+2 Harvard: 10% to 20%

Sandy’s Analysis: Just for the record, I take it you are not a US CITIZEN, that is an important fact because you will not be considered as an “official” URM (under rep. minority), since that category is limited to US Citizens, it’s a government reporting issue, not so much an adcom issue, but the adcom keeps track b.c. they have to report URM numbers to gov’ment. You will still be considered African, which is a diversity plus.

OK, as to you. This is an atypical 2+2 application, given age and breaks in undergrad education.

It is also not clear to me what employment history is. You say:

Started 2 startups during my first year at uni, one I sold to a family friend and the other failed;
– interned in finance in investment management
– working now on another startup before starting my masters next semester

GRRRRR, as often noted, start-ups are an iffy issue for adcoms to credit, since anyone can say they started a company (and can add, they sold to a family friend). Adcoms prefer bright line accomplishments like summer internships at Goldman or McKinsey etc.

You do have one gig in finance. The actual name of the company will help.

You are self-identifying as someone interested in finance pre-MBA, and that is a crowded box, with a lot of blue chip competition.

If your goals after MBA are “entrepreneurship in healthcare/pharmaceuticals in Africa”
well, you might 1. make those pre-MBA goals, since that is a risk that 2+2 supports, and 2. it is more in line with what you seem to want to do.

Your current post is a bit two-minded, one part of you seems to want to make a lot of money as a banker and the other is a do-gooder.

Here’s some tough love: Get your game face on, play the Africa card, and go all in on do-gooder jive in Africa.

All that said, 2+2 is going to be hard on these facts.

Mr. Senior Trader

• 740 GMAT
• 3.3 GPA
• Undergraduate degree in computer science and finance from a top public university (UT Austin, UCLA, Michigan, UNC-Chapel HIll, Virginia).
• Work experience includes being a senior trader at a top-tier proprietary trading firm in Chicago. “Ascended from assistant trader to senior trader in less than two years. Only job experience I’ve had since I graduated college. One of the top guys at my firm”
• Extracurricular involvement includes founding a foundation with a friend working in Nigeria that runs a small clinic in an ancestral village providing free/reduced cost healthcare for children; also created a scholarship fund for primary school-aged children within his ancestral village to attend school
• Long-term Goal: To transition into private equity in emerging markets, ultimately starting his own pe firm.
• “Through technology, I also want to make a meaningful impact in education in Nigeria by providing a platform for the intellectually curious, talented, but poor to leverage their talents to impart a meaningful impact in the lives of their families but also fellow Nigerians”
• Fluent in four languages: English, French, Arabic, Spanish
• 30-year-old African-American male in U.S.

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20% to 30%
Stanford: 20%
Wharton: 20% to 30%
Duke: 30% to 40%
Columbia: 30%+
Chicago: 30%+
Northwestern: 30%+
Yale: 30%+

Sandy’s Analysis: This is mostly a great profile for obvious reasons, including Afro-Am, 740 GMAT —

The 3.3 GPA will be below average at all your target schools, but there are lots of reasons for them to wink at that.

As to work ex.
” I’m currently a senior trader at top tier proprietary trading firm in
Chicago. Ascended from assistant trader to senior trader in less than 2
years. Only job experience I’ve had since I graduated college. One of
the top guys at my firm.”

GRRRRRRR, trading is not considered a selective or feeder job at HSW, on the other hand, it’s a real job, you’ve been successful at it.

” Extracurricular involvement – Through a foundation I formed with a
friend working in Nigeria, we run a small clinic in our ancestral
village providing free/reduced cost healthcare for children whose
parents otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford it. Also created a
scholarship fund for primary school aged children within our village to
attend school if their parents can’t afford to pay for them.”\

REAL GOOD.

“Long term goal is to transition into private equity in emerging markets,
ultimately starting my own pe firm. ”

As a rule, transitioning fr. trading background into PE is REAL hard, totally diff skill sets, well, that is the way the two gigs are conceived of by the dudes doing PE hiring, so you may have to, after graduation, serve some time on the cross as an investment banker.
I would mention that as part of your goal roadmap, to sound like you know the terrain. Real important. If you can do that, and recs etc are solid, you could have a shot at all your schools,

Afro-Am guys with 740 and super extras like you are rare, and GPA is not a deal breaker but may also need to be explained.

I think you odds at non-HSW are real solid IF you can convince adcoms there you want to attend. Be sure to visit, schmooze, etc. In all cases.

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