What does 2019 hold for business schools and graduate business education? We asked profs and deans at the leading schools.
What does 2019 have in store for graduate business education? Poets&Quants asked deans and professors from some of the top schools to look into their crystal balls and predict the future, and we compiled their answers. One school’s research department predicts a recession is on the way for the U.S. economy. A Michigan professor opined at length on the viability of the Affordable Care Act. The importance of diversity will grow, says another school’s associate dean, and along with it, allyship. And the leading schools will continue to promote business as not just a pathway to profit but a force for good.
If there is anything resembling a consensus among the B-school luminaries we polled, it’s that the importance of technology and tech advances will continue — and continue to grow — in the new year and beyond. That’s certainly the view of Jonathan Levin, dean of the Stanford Graduate School of Business. The challenges that arise in 2019 will be best met with innovation and collaboration between diverse stakeholders, he says, a factor that will be Stanford’s focus in the new year and years to come. Big technological shifts, he adds, will make the MBA an even more valuable asset than it already is.
“As technology continues to influence the way business leaders make decisions, I predict that the value of the MBA degree will increase in future years,” Levin tells Poets&Quants. “The world is quickly embracing machine learning, automation, data science and other emerging innovations, and it’s vital that the next generation of business leaders possess the skills necessary to make critical decisions that will impact the future of our global economy. I believe that business schools are best equipped to develop these skill sets in a way that is thoughtful and responsible, equipping students with the soft and hard skills necessary to tackle complex changes.
“As we enter 2019, Stanford GSB will continue to recruit and hire diverse faculty who have experience applying emerging technology to business challenges, as well as explore new courses that can help students consider the unique challenges and ethical dilemmas faced by businesses in this new era.”
THE IMPORTANCE OF DIVERSITY
Cornell Johnson’s Vishal Gaur. Courtesy photo
Vishal Gaur, associate dean for MBA programs and Emerson professor of manufacturing management at Cornell University’s Johnson Graduate School of Management, says his school recognizes the growing value of diversity in business and business education and will continue in the new year to promote and foster it. It’s an effort, he says, that goes hand in hand with the cross-disciplinary opportunities Cornell embraces and promotes at both its campuses. “Diversity and allyship will continue increasing in importance in 2019,” Gaur says. “At Johnson, we have integrated diversity and allyship experiences into all our course disciplines, whether finance or technology or entrepreneurship, through our first-year immersion curriculum. We also have created a strong partnership with students to promote dialogue in our community through our Fiery Topics series. These enhancements help prepare our students to be leaders who can shape culture, be strong team players, and innovate, and also ensure that the Johnson community supports all of its members.
“I see growth in cross-disciplinary educational opportunities as another important force for MBA programs in 2019. The new Cornell SC Johnson College of Business and our MBA program at Cornell Tech are creating tremendous opportunities for cross-disciplinary integration for our MBA students, both across campuses and with our sister schools. This is particularly impacting students interested in intersections with technology and entrepreneurship. We will continue to invest in new programs that span schools and campuses and create cross-disciplinary opportunities for our students.”
M. Eric Johnson, dean of the Owen Graduate School of Management at Vanderbilt University, says 2019 will be a year of developments that no one can predict.
“Get ready for surprises!” Johnson tells P&Q. “In a world driving by algorithms, big data, sensors, and AI, we will see more surprising computer-driven outcomes. Some are as simple as that strange detour that Waze recommends to avoid multiple pinch points of construction and traffic. Others are more breathtaking, like the December 26 massive stock market rally — the first 1,000-point single-day DOW run-up in history. Reporting on the post-Christmas surge, the WSJ highlighted trader surprise: ‘”There’s only one word to describe this: astonishment,” said Michael Antonelli, a trader for R.W. Baird & Co. “I’m sitting on a desk with people who are 20- to 25-year veterans of trading and our mouths are hanging opened, astonished. It was a melt-up and you may never see price action like this again in your life.”'”
‘THE YEAR OF DATA’
UCLA’s Terry Kramer. Courtesy photo
Terry Kramer, faculty director for the Easton Technology Management Center and adjunct professor of Decisions, Operations & Technology Management at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management, says 2019 will be “The Year of Data” and its accelerating impact on consumers, enterprises, and society. “Technological innovations during the past few years have taught us one thing,” he says. “Everything is accelerating.”
Kramer says the changes are everywhere, “from processing power in computing devices, the speed of consumer feedback and product life-cycle, and the emergence of many disruptive ventures to the rapid demise of those failing to adapt. The catalyst for this in many cases has been the availability, quality, and access to data.
“In 2019, we will see an exponential increase in this data, fueled by rapidly increasing levels of e-commerce, social network expansions, and most notably of late, the Internet of Things in both consumer and enterprise applications. Whether it be connected homes, connected cars, wearable devices in the consumer world or in the enterprise environment with connected buildings, vehicles, aircraft, power transmission sites, and cities, we are on a path to billions of devices being connected. This increase will demand a unique ability to understand this data and fuel ‘real’ predictive capabilities in areas such as autonomous vehicles, diagnostic capabilities in healthcare, virtual assistants on mobile devices and in call centers, and the best capabilities yet in contextualizing search and recommendation engines. These offerings will move past theory into early commercial offerings in multiple sectors.
“This vision signals the importance of preparing students, both today and tomorrow, for successful leadership careers in technology-based businesses. It also reflects the need for leadership in all industries, not just traditional tech, as all businesses face the opportunities and challenges of technology-based disruptions. Should be a ‘high impact ride’!”
What will 2019 hold? One school’s research points to recession in the U.S. economy.
Scott DeRue, dean of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, doesn’t shy away from soothsaying. He offers several forecasts for business schools in general. Not shockingly, the first is related to tech. But DeRue foresees other changes, too: among them, new cross-disciplinary partnerships and program consolidation.
“I predict the technology and social responsibility conversations will come together in more intentional and powerful ways,” DeRue tells P&Q. “Topics such as responsible artificial intelligence will become mainstream in business schools, and companies will be asked by faculty and students alike to articulate how they are ensuring technological advances to promote a more transparent, safe, and equitable society.
“Second, I expect new types of partnerships will emerge between business and engineering schools, and companies focused on innovation, entrepreneurship, and regional economic development. Schools offer the one thing that every company wants and needs — talent. Through growth and innovation, talented university graduates will help companies excel and stimulate the economy. With aligned goals, I expect companies and universities will discover new and different types of partnership that are mutually beneficial.
“Third, I predict further consolidation of business schools. Business education is a mature market with an oversupply of programs. Top business schools offer students an excellent return on their investment, but schools that cannot offer a strong return will either adapt or die.”
THOUGHTS ON HEALTHCARE IN THE NEW YEAR
Elsewhere in Ann Arbor, several profs offered predictions on everything from entrepreneurship to climate change to Brexit and trade to the gig economy. Sarah Miller’s focus is on one public policy issue in particular as the calendar flips to a new year: An assistant professor of business economics and public policy at the Ross School, Miller’s research focuses on the effects of healthcare policy on consumer credit and financial outcomes. She says the main factors behind the recent dip in insurance enrollments through the Affordable Care Act are a cause for concern — but she expects the healthcare law to persist and cost increases to remain low.
“Two concerning drivers of low enrollment are the Trump administration’s decision to expand short-term plans that are cheaper but not required to cover pre-existing conditions, and the repeal of the individual mandate,” Miller says. “Both of these changes will likely lead healthier consumers to not enroll in marketplace plans, which could in turn increase the average cost of marketplace enrollees and lead to higher premiums in the future. On the other hand, a stronger labor market means at least some of the dip in enrollments may be coming from greater access to employer-sponsored insurance as fewer people are unemployed — which is always a good thing!”
She adds that she expects the recently announced slowdown in 2017 to roughly the same rate as the overall economy to persist in the 2018 numbers. And prescription drug prices, at least in the short term, are likely to stay low.
“In the short run, I expect them to stay low as generics hold a big fraction of the market. But the United States has an almost endless appetite for new technologies, and over the next few years, I would not be surprised if a new generation of blockbuster drugs hit the market, especially given all of the recent scientific advances in gene therapy.”
Miller also doesn’t expect much to come this year of the lawsuit in which 20 states are challenging parts of the ACA. And she likewise doesn’t expect new efforts — either legislative, legal, or administrative — to undermine or repeal the ACA in 2019.
“The Republicans enjoyed campaigning on repealing the ACA when they lacked the power to do so, but now they are grappling with the fact that major changes to the law’s core structure would result in a very politically unpopular drop in insurance coverage,” Miller says. “If they were going to enact major changes, they would have already done so. If anything, the Republicans’ bluster against the law has made it more popular than ever! I suspect they are secretly hoping nothing comes of these new lawsuits.”
Will some sort of “Medicare for All” plan get serious consideration during 2019? “It may become a popular campaign slogan, but I seriously doubt it will get serious play as an actual public policy unless the Democrats take power in a big way,” Miller says.
A KEY QUESTION IN 2019: HOW TO HANDLE ALL THE DATA
Mitchell Petersen of Northwestern Kellogg. Jeff Sciortino photo
Mitchell Petersen, professor of finance at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, says the automation of decision making will create new quandaries in 2019 and beyond that will require B-schools to adjust how they teach students in MBA and other programs.
“The data available to business leaders has exploded,” Petersen tells P&Q. “The dramatic growth in raw data means knowing how to use data to ask and answer important questions is becoming increasingly important. Technology allows us to make decisions quicker and with greater precision but not always with greater accuracy.
“The growth of data raises two issues. The first is the ability to use the data efficiently. In both education and practice, business professionals need to use their discipline based knowledge combined with their institutional knowledge, to form and test hypothesis. The data then allows us to reject or update our hypothesis. This iterative pattern recognition is how we understand how our business works (why customers come into our stores, why loans default, why products are returned).
“The second issue is the nature of the data has evolved. Historically data was collected and decisions were made by a given individual or group (soft information). Now the collection of the data and the decisions are often separated. This increases efficiency and expands the geographic and time scope across which data can be used. This automation of decisions creates new problems.
“As we saw in the financial crisis, and may see with some applications of FinTech, any discreet and transparent method for transforming data into decisions is susceptible to manipulation of the data. Thus firms which remove the human element from decisions to make them more efficient need to understand how the data environment changes in response to the way the firms make decisions.”
Fuqua Dean William Boulding. Justin Cook photo
PESSIMISM BALANCED WITH A LITTLE OPTIMISM
One school offered a bummer of a prediction. In its quarterly survey of chief financial officers, Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business found a pervasive pessimism about the country’s economic outlook. The survey findings show about half of CFOs predict a recession by the end of 2019. “The end is near for the near-decade-long burst of global economic growth,” said John Graham, a Fuqua finance professor and director of the survey. “The U.S. outlook has declined, and moreover, the outlook is even worse in many other parts of the world, which will lead to softer demand for U.S. goods.”
Fuqua Dean Bill Boulding, however, had a more hopeful outlook. Not surprisingly, he focused his prognostication on the positive impacts of tech.
“I predict business school graduates are going to become even more important in the tech sector in 2019,” Boulding tells P&Q. “Tech innovation is happening so rapidly that it’s essential that the people leading that innovation be thinking not just about the direct possibility and opportunity due to the innovation but the also the broader societal implications. Just because we can do something, does not always mean we should. Innovation can unlock extraordinary possibilities and has given us so much — but there are also ethical implications to be considered. We cannot outsource the role of human judgment to technology nor can we afford to allow technology to disconnect us from our humanity.
“Business school graduates are uniquely positioned to help lead technology innovation. Students from some business school programs learn deep technical competencies alongside leadership and communication skills. That can be a powerful combination in developing leaders in technology who are able to understand, analyze and adapt for the long-game, while executing at the fast pace demanded in tech. (Full disclosure: I’m a little biased here since we have a Management Science and Technology Management track in our full-time MBA program and a one-year degree in data analytics which would fall into this category).
“It’s no secret that tech companies have become a top employer of business school graduates — Duke included — and I expect that to continue in 2019. That also makes me very hopeful for the future of tech innovation and the value that’s already being demonstrated by business school hires.”
IT’S ALL ABOUT WHAT TECH CAN DO IN 2019
Tech is clearly on everyone’s minds as the new year gets underway. Prashant Malaviya, Georgetown University McDonough School of Business senior associate dean for MBA programs, says the possibilities are limitless, in education and the overall business landscape. Schools can best take advantage of this with expanded experiential offerings, he adds.
“Technology allows business schools to reimagine the future of leadership and management education that aligns with changes in the future of work,” Malaviya says. “We should expect to see an increase in demand from employers seeking graduates who are prepared to pursue technology-focused careers.
“Also, students are interested in academic exposure to the evolving fields of business and impact. Business schools should anticipate expanding both rigorous coursework and experiential learning opportunities to foster ethical leadership and leverage business as a force for good.”
DON’T MISS B-SCHOOL DEANS SHARE 2019 NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTIONS and B-SCHOOLS PREDICT WHAT AWAITS IN 2018
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