MBA Advisor: Handicapping Your Elite MBA Odds

HBS Guru Sandy Kreisberg & P&Q Editor John A. Byrne

After a three-year stint at Bain & Co., this 25-year-old Indian male professional is leading he launch of a drink at a beverage startup. With a 730 GMAT and a short-term goal to return to Bain as a manager, he now wants to return to school for an MBA.

When she applies next year to business school, this Oxford graduate will have three years of experience as an equity research analyst for a bulge bracket American bank in London. She won a promotion to associate a year early, is actively involved with a choir and a local taekwondo club. Her goal: To earn an MBA from Harvard, Stanford or Wharton.

After earning an undergraduate degree in cello performance, this young professional gained his first job in the Atlanta mailroom of a Big Four accounting firm and worked his way into a consulting gig with its healthcare practice. Now he wants some formal business training along with a deeper healthcare dive in a dual MBA and public health masters.

What these three MBA candidates and more share in common is the desire to get through the door of a highly selective MBA program at one of the world’s very best business schools. Do they have a chance?

Sanford “Sandy” Kreisberg, founder of MBA admissions consulting firm HBSGuru.com, is back to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics, work backgrounds, and career goals with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature to be published shortly. (Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

Mr. Cello-Playing Healthcare Consultant

160Q, 163V GRE
3.5 GPA
Undergraduate degree in cello performance from Temple
Work experience includes a stint as a professional cellist; worked way up from the Atlanta mailroom of a Big Four firm and transitioned into healthcare consulting at the Big Four; consulted on the Ebola and Zika virus, the opiod epidemic, healthcare provider preparedness
Extracurricular involvement includes playing cello in college for the symphony and doing pro bono work in healthcare
Goal: To return to Big Four in the healthcare practice in a managerial role
Considering a dual degree with a master’s in healthcare or public health along with an MBA

Odds of Success:

Yale: 30% to 40%
Cornell: 40%
University of Washington: 50%
Emory: 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: From a hard headed admissions point of view, you are a real Big Four healthcare consultant. And you’re a likeable guy. You have a story with a life-changing breakthrough, moving out of the mailroom and into a consulting job. You get promoted and are one of the top performers at the firm.

Besides, business schools like musicians. It gives them the delusion that what they are doing is artistic. The cello is an instrument a lot of people like. This is all good stuff.

But your GRE score translates into a 660 GMAT. So what you are saying to these schools is, “Take me. I’ve got a 660 GMAT.

For Yale, the average GMAT is 725. So that is a reach. For Cornell, it’s 700. That is also a reach. At Washington, it’s 691, and at Emory, it’s 682.

Dude, my tough love is take the test again. Keep taking the GRE. These people probabaly want to meet you half way. The standardized tests count more and more. It sounds like torture to even take it one or two more times, but your scores kind of drifts up. So retake the test.

And you need to have the people at the Big Four back you. You are applying to bookcase schools. You are not talking about Harvard and Stanford. Your reach school is Yale, and you would be on target at Emory and Washington if you had 20 or 30 more points on your exam.

Your likeable guy and I think you’ll get into Emory, Washington and even Cornell. But Yale needs a bigger GRE score.

For the record, I’m against dual degrees. It’s a lot of money. You lost a year of income and you pay the tuition so that frequently comes out to a quarter of a million more. You don’t need a health degree to rejoin the Big Four in a job you already have. Somebody has to say, ‘Gee, do you learn anything getting a degree in public health? I don’t think you’ll learn anything. What you do is you will expand your network. But are three additional friends worth $250,000 over the network you’ll get from a business school? I don’t think so.

But an MBA would sign, seal and deliver you into your dream job.

Ms. Bulge Bracket Banker

- GMAT Unknown
- 3.3 GPA (2.1 British scale)
- Undergraduate degree in philosophy, politics and economics from Oxford University
- Work experience includes three years as an equity research analyst for a bulge bracket American bank in London
- “I was promoted to associate a year early and am now the number two in my team with two juniors reporting in to me. I am the analyst and associate representative for equity research – responsible for representing juniors to management and organizing training and events”
- Extracurricular involvement in college as the founder of an online newspaper and president of the business society; now actively involved in a choir and local taekwondo club; volunteer tutor of underprivileged students in a level English weekly
- White, female
- Odds of Success:
  
  Harvard: 30%
  Stanford: 20%
  Wharton: 30% to 40%
  
  Sandy’s Analysis: You are in a category, IB/PE, where most resume/work items for white females need to be gold and while you got some, it may not be enough.Sure, you’ve got a “gold” three-year career in equity research at a bulge bracket bank and you went to Oxford, a gold and gold foil place, but the fun stops there. Your GMAT/GRE score will be important for you (unless I missed it some place) because you are competing with applicants from banking and private equity who were born with golden spoons in their mouths and proceeded to acquire the entire 24-piece Christofle mood flatware service along the way.
  Huh?
  
  The negatives for you include a silver GPA (2:1 Brit scale; ~3.3 translation into U.S. 4-point scale) and nothing compelling in terms of extras, although there is plenty for a non-adcom to like, including Chorus and Taekwondo (maybe you can scream and kick your way in?). All that is fine, but there are many white females in IB/PE land with better grades, potentially better GMATs, and extras which have an impact beyond yourself.
  
  OK, let’s start with the pluses.
  
  You say “promoted to associate a year early and am now the number 2 in my team with two juniors reporting in to me. I am the analyst and associate representative for equity research – responsible for representing juniors to management and organizing training and events.” That is a chunk of substance which is more impressive and weighty in reality than on Planet Adcom, which has its own gravitational field. You got promoted a year early, that is good for sure and needs to be deeply captured in your recs. You have juniors reporting to you, which is also a powerful learning experience, and beyond that, you are “responsible for representing juniors to management,” which is very serious indeed.
  
  Gee, if HBS and Stanford cared about “leadership” (cough, cough) instead of the other things we are about to mention, you’d be a super strong candidate. You also add that you organize “training and events . . . .” I’d soft pedal that, it sounds too much like women’s work, not to grizzly ol’ male me, who recognizes how important that can be, but to the cynical and “seen-it-all” adcom regulars who by dint of long experience have worked out a tacit rule of thumb when it comes to extras: “If you ain’t helping victims, preferably victims in some remote and benighted land or zip code, it ain’t an extra we care about.”
  
  Well, despite the quotation marks, no one ever utters those exact words in Adcom Land, but the idea is in the air and in the adcom drinking water. (By the way, providing clean drinking water for humans, or even animals in need, is an excellent extra, in case you were wondering what I meant.)
  
  “At Oxford I founded an online newspaper and was president of the business society . . . .” Well, joining the business society is a banal and possibly negative and self-serving thing to do but being president does show an ability to show up for a meeting, sit still, and have a long fuse, which are traits HBS and Stanford DO sorta admire. That is why they like high GPAs which to them means your ability to
  
  1. Show up,
  2. Eat sh!t,
  3. Spit back–the holy trinity of success in B school (and possibly life beyond, but B-school for sure).
  
  As to founding an online newspaper, well, I love it but I am not an adcom. They might want to know how large your readership, if you sold any ads, and maybe how many stories were published about helping victims.
  
  “I also volunteer tutoring underprivileged students in a level English weekly.”
  Grrrrrrrr, too little, too late. You needed to be president of THAT at Oxford.
  
  And let me add, for the sake of completeness, that in your league, spending three years at one job, and even doing as wonderfully as you did, is not as impressive as leaving the same job after two years for some selective PE firm or some ultra-selective and hot-seeming and growing tech/online/blah-blah start-up. After all, nothing can compare with testing your value on the actual market.
  
  Sooooooo, what we got is a white female, with low-ish grades, a good job, great job performance, and OK but not bonus points extracurrics. For the sake of argument, let’s also give you a 720-730 GMAT. (I would keep taking the damn exam until you got that, if possible. Schools sometimes blink at lower GMATs but rarely for folks like you.)
  
  Stanford is not going to bite, my guess, for all the reasons noted above. They got a real but not vast IB hole, and they got lots of white women without the tiny but real infirmities in your case.
  
  HBS, ouch! It’s close. And I rarely say this, but this is a case where execution can make a difference. There is a good deal of intangible but “likable” stuff in your story, you need to have your recs go beyond the usual very strong rec blah, blah and capture that too. It would help if your essay also did that, viz., actually showed them how you are a star at work, and maybe explained your decision to stay for year three, and also somehow highlighted OTHER stuff that makes you different than other white woman IB types, may peace be upon them.
  
  Wharton is the same analysis as HBS, although you will need to chuck some I LOVE WHARTON cow patties into the app furnace.
  
  You should be real solid at most other schools if you can convince them you really want to come.
  
  Mr. IIT Bainie
  - 730 GMAT (Q50/V39)
  - 7.9/10 GPA
  - Undergraduate degree in engineering from IIT Delhi
  - Work experience includes three years as a management consultant at Bain & Co., with two promotions; work focused on consumer products industry, including the world’s largest spirits company, India’s largest FMCG company; currently leading the launch of a new drink at a beverage start-up and will return to Bain in January of 2018
  - Extracurricular involvement as general secretary at IITD, leading a 200+ team to organize a college fest, implemented academic reforms; passionate about mentoring, teaching English at evening school for seven years; mentor as part of IITD alumni association and at Bain; awarded best all-rounder of graduating class among 800+ students by Director, IITD; debating (several podium finishes) & theatre (acted/directed 10+ plays, including three with a pro-theatre group)
  - Short-term goal: To return to Bain as a manager and gain experience in F&B industry
  - Long-term goal: To launch a beverage brand that makes nutritious drinks for rural Indians
  - Recommenders are Wharton alums from Bain
  25-year-old Indian male

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20%
Stanford: 15%
Wharton: 30% to 40%

Sandy’s Analysis: Grrrrr, I’m tempted to call you Mr. Beverage but Mr. Milk might be more accurate, given that this is a nutritious and vitamin jammed application that any mother would gladly want for her infant but similar to the White Woman we profiled today (see Ms. Bulge Bracket Banker) not clear you got the up from adversity/helping victims mojo that Stanford likes to drink.

HBS can get this down, and so can Wharton, although outcomes in all cases may depend on what the consultant cohort looks like.

Let’s start with the basics:
What we have here is a 25-year-old Indian male, with a bachelors from IIT Delhi, CGPA: 7.9/10
GMAT: 730 (Q: 50, V: 39).

Well, that seems OK-ish to me. There is tremendous and unresolved, to my mind, chatter on the Internet on how to convert an IIT score to some US equivalent, for an informed but not fully satisfying discussion see this.

Based on my own experience, an IIT CGPA of 7.9/10 is real solid but not bright gold (nor do I know the relative place of IIT Delhi in the IIT pecking order). IF ANY READERS HAVE INSIGHT ON THIS, PLEASE NOTE THAT IN COMMENTS.

I’d say the 7.9 is more competitive at H/S/W than the 730 (GMAT scores I DO know about) and I would strongly suggest you take that over. It is below the average score for all comers at H/S/W and could be below the average Desi, male score by A LOT!!!!!

Moreover, I got a hunch it is also below the average GMAT score for MBB (McKinsey, Bain, BCG) applicants at HSW by a lot. And them guys is your competition to some serious degree.

As to your career at Bain, which you summarize as “three years . . . (joined straight after undergrad), gained two promotions including an early one . . . .” I would note here, as with White Woman from bulge IB, you have three successful years with early promotions, and while that is OK in some ways, it is not as good as two years at Bain and then some SECOND JOB at some super hot and selective place, viz, PE or heat-seeking start-up.

In your case, actually, you will enter B-school after four years at Bain, and a secondment (I think) at a beverage company, viz., “Focused work on consumer products industry (clients include world’s largest spirits company, India’s largest FMCG company), currently leading launch of a new drink at a beverage start-up (will return to Bain in Jan 2018).”

Well, that’s a great Bain career, and if you had A+ grades and GMATs it might make you on par with folks who work in consulting for two years and then hit career super jackpot at Job 2.

But your great Bain career and so-so stats will not even you up to solid gold folks, many of whom are sitting at desks to the left and right of you (well, not at the beverage company but back at Bain).

“Goals:
-Short term: Return to Bain as a Manager, gain experience in F&B industry

Hmmmmmm, let me caution you about making too much out of your food and beverage experience. Adcoms first of all do not consider food and beverages to be any special kind of industry, unlike many versions of tech, e.g. medical devices, and certainly biotech. It is old economy, and while the title FMCG may mean Fast Moving Consumer Goods, it is ironically, quite SLOW MOVING as an industry, that part of it not being gobbled up by Amazon anyway, and it also suffers from the “familiarity breeds contempt” syndrome.

We all actually know what FMCGs are, and that takes a bit of the mystery away from why you really need an MBA to be a big deal in this, ahem, space. Don’t get me wrong. There are folks from FMCG at all top B-schools, but my guess is, their passion for FMCG was not a major factor in their admission.

Ah, but clever you have seen this problem and come up with a work around.
Your long-term goal is “Launch beverage brand that makes nutritious drinks for rural Indians.”

Boy that stone kills several birds in your mind, you are founder, you are an innovator, and you are bringing nutrition in liquid and screw-top form to x number of rural Indians. I admire the instinct, and you might say that as one of several goals, but I would state my goals more broadly as someone interested in innovative and impactful leadership in India where you see the chance to create new products, create new jobs, service new markets, and examples of this are 1, 2 and 3.

As to your extras, yes, there are a lot of them, but as with White Woman, let me give you a no-mercy take on what adcom makes of them.

General Secretary at IITD (led 200+ team to organize college fest, implemented academic reforms)

That is actually impressive in some “man, this guy loves stuff like that way . . . and seems to work and play well with others.”

2. Passionate about mentoring
-have been teaching English at evening school for 7 years
-Mentor as part of IITD alumni association and at Bain

Keep up the good work, but mentoring does not light their fire. If folks in that evening school are blind or some lower caste, YES, maybe.

3. Awarded best all-rounder of graduating class among 800+ students by Director, IITD

See remarks at 1 above, at some point being the kind of person who wins these prizes begins to add up to something that even oddball and PC adcoms have to recognize as “yes, square and retrograde but impressive.”

4. Others- Debating (several podium finishes)

Debating is a near negative, full of hot heads, zealots (even if acting) and show-offs. The very idea of debating is anti-community. Even as an exercise, it’s scripted, rhetorical, and misfocused.

& theatre (acted/directed 10+ plays, including 3 with a pro theatre group)

Adcoms OK about theatre as something you used to do.

The issue is whether this long and impressive list is going to move the needle, since none of it was helping victims in distant places and a good deal of it makes you seem normal and popular, and who needs people like that?

I think in your case, quantity may, just may, transform itself into near quality, so these will help.

I’m not seeing this as Stanford, which is not bent in favor of consultants to begin with, especially since they will hold their noses and take other consultants who are more boring, odd, and have immaculate stats.

HBS might throw you in the stew. Your job there will be in recs and app execution, to appear really likable, not just ha, ha, all-rounder likable who does theatre.

Wharton may actually like this jive at face value. Enough to swallow a sub-average GMAT score for your demo.

Mr. Air Force Captain

- - 720 GMAT
  - 3.56 GPA
  - Undergraduate degree in economics and business from UC-Berkeley
  - Work experience includes four years of active duty in the U.S. Air Force, currently a captain working as an intelligence officer.
  - Extracurricular involvement as the founder of a consulting group focused on the healthcare space; Completed case studies with an AIDs clinic and healthcare start-up; Was an RA for two years and organized some somewhat significantly sized student events; AFROTC on scholarship; Had internship at the national geospatial intelligence agency and at the council for foreign relations.
  - Speaks three languages: English; Spanish; Farsi
  - Goal: To transition into consulting and then eventually become a CEO
  - “GRE: Haven’t taken. Will it help?”
  - “If it’s relevant, I’m legacy at Stanford and Michigan, just not at their business schools”
  - 28-year-old White Latino Male, ethnically Latino

Odds of Success:

UC-Berkeley: 40%+
Harvard: 30% to 40%
Stanford: 20%+
MIT: 30%+
Michigan: 40% to 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: Dunno, Cap’n, this is real solid without the Latino angle, and with that, it becomes solid-er, but we need to know exactly what “White Male, ethnically latino” means, see below.

As we often note, Adcoms have a hard time unpacking the secret markers of a military career. The only two things they “get” are pilots and combat. You get some instant bonus points for those. Some schools have vets on the adcom, and that has been the case “off and on” at HBS and Stanford, though I am not sure if the current adcoms there are “off” or “on” at the moment. If any reader does know, please share in a comment.

To be honest, even at times where vets have been on the adcom, my sense was that military application outcomes could be predicted very well based on some college pecking order, GPA/GMAT and URM formula. If you were non-URM, your college and GPA/GMAT really predicted a good deal in some fuzzy but clear way that consultants like me developed a feel for.

What happened after you entered the military, in terms of what you did, where you were sent, whether you got gigs that to an insider were selective or not, was kind of a wash in most cases (as noted, pilots and combat experience were noted and also thrown into the mix).

In your case, we got a “White Male, ethnically latino.” To start at the beginning, you will be considered an under-represented minority at B-schools if you are in a group called “Hispanic surname.” That term itself is open to some adjustments, viz, if your mom is Latino, and your dad is Jack White, and your name is Richard White and your Latino mom raised you as a single mom in an Hispanic culture and area, and many of your friends and the surrounding culture were Hispanic, well, you just might be considered URM although it might help to use your mom’s surname as your middle name.

I am not sure what “White Male, ethnically latino” means in that context, but if both your parents are white, and you really dig Latino culture, and speak Spanish, that is not URM. If you have an Hispanic surname and look really, really white, that is URM. Maybe you can tell us more in a comment to this story.

Anyway, if you qualify as URM, this is a strong military profile, given that UC-Berkley is a tie-one school in adcom’s mind. So your 3.56 GPA overall with an honors in Econ (Econ GPA was 3.7) is OK-ish in adcom’s mind, and military GPAs are often 10 “basis points” (if that is correct term in this context, e.g. if average GPA is 3.60, military average GPA could be 3.50). You are a Captain, which is about the highest rank I know for B-school applicants (someone let me know if that is not the case).

You also add: “Extracurriculars: Founded a consulting group focused on the healthcare space. Completed case studies with an aids clinic and healthcare start-up.”

Lots of potential here but on your actual app, this will need to be unpacked more and it better remain credible. As stated, a reader is wondering how some full-time military Captain has time to “found” a consulting group, and what does that mean in this context? An AIDs clinic is always a plus, but we need more. Ditto “healthcare start-up.” These are valuable undertakings, and even if you did not “found” them, I would err on the side of credibility and be very specific about what these organizations did and what you did. If there is enough of that, it is almost as good as being a “founder.”

” Was an RA for two years and organized some somewhat significantly sized student events.”

Not sure RA has much impact in general although, sure, it could be a role that has lessons for you, but we need to hear that. As to organizing events, again, it has potential as an extracurric. But you need to be specific about working with others, what your leadership style was, and what the events were about.

“Had internship at the national geospatial intelligence agency and at the council for foreign relations.”

Not sure what geospatial outfit does but sure, these are nice stops on the future consultant highway.

“I want to get an MBA so I can transition into consulting and then eventually become a CEO.”

Ahem, consulting is real solid career choice for vets, the usual way this is stated is sorta interested in both strategic consulting and implementing guidance as a way to transition into an executive role in business like A, B, or C which interests me because blah, blah. Not a big deal but try to identify a business you would like be a leader in, and better still, role models in military guys who are now business leaders (better still, if those guys have MBA).

“I am considering going back to Haas at Berkeley, HBS, Stanford, MIT Sloan, and Michigan Ross. . . . If its relevant, I’m legacy at Stanford and Michigan just not at their business schools.”

You got a real chance at HBS, especially if you are URM, and if not, a solid chance based on stats. You may need to make goals, influences, and your military career more “integrated,” although that does not have to be in some follow-the-dots way, just a smart, reflective and honest way. There may not be enough magic here for Stanford, although it will depend a bit on your military competition. If you are not URM, Stanford is going to be real hard. I think this will be solid at Berk and Mich. Sloan may really like the 3.7 at Berk in Econ, especially if the Q part of your GMAT is high. They are always looking for Quanty URMs, and if you are not URM, you got a shot anyhow in just beating out the other military guys.

I am not sure about the value of being a legacy at Stanford. They may hold it against you unless you have a parent who is a huge donor. Their inchoate self-hatred and contorted view of privilege in all its variants knows no bounds and is hard to predict. I don’t see much upside, to be frank, and I certainly would not attempt to make much out of it.

The folks at Michigan take a more clear and Mid-Western view of this, in case of a tie, they may give you the base.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Handicapping Your Elite MBA Odds - Poets&Quants

Mr. Cello-Playing Healthcare Consultant

Ms. Bulge Bracket Banker

Mr. IIT Bainie

Mr. Air Force Captain

Handicapping Your MBA Odds – The Entire Series

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